This is the #NeverForget Diary, a weekly summary of what’s happening in the Philippines under Marcos II. In a time of mangled histories and fragile memories, it’s crucial never to forget. (Note: this post may be clipped in your email inbox. Photos above from Percy Lapid’s FB page, Senator Risa Hontiveros.)
October 8, 2022 marked 100 days since President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. took office. It’s been meh so far.
On October 5, ex-president Gloria Arroyo—now the senior deputy speaker of the House—issued a statement saying Marcos Jr. “reassured everyone by assembling an economic team that has been universally praised” and “projected himself as a calm, thoughtful leader.” Really?
Later, Marcos Jr. himself boasted that we was able to achieve a “functional” government that had “strict” targets for the economy. But isn’t that the bare minimum, and what ought to be expected from any president?
Marcos Jr. also said he was able to find the “best and brightest” especially with his economic team. But isn’t that to be expected from any government? And did those appointments do anything to abate inflation?
When asked by Ivan Mayrina of GMA News about the achievements so far, Marcos Jr.’s response was just excruciating to watch:
I shared some thoughts about the president’s first 100 days in this piece by Mara Cepeda for the Straits Times:
As written by Rappler’s Glenda Gloria, one Palace old-timer said, “[It’s] all smoke and mirrors for now. Parang figurehead lang siya.” (It’s like he’s just a figurehead.)
Meanwhile, Senator Risa Hontiveros said “chaos” reigned in the Palace in the first 100 days of Marcos Jr.:
Without anything much to show for, Marcos Jr. broke tradition and did not publish a report of things he did after 100 days:
The lack of a report contrasts with this speech of PNoy after his own 100 days back in October 2010:
Instead, Marcos Jr. opted to release a vlog on social media, purporting that the first 100 days was not really a honeymoon period because he had no difficulty adjusting since he was somehow already familiar with the work:
He said the 3 themes dominate his first 100 days: kalusugan (health), kabuhayan (livelihood), and kapayapaan (peace).
As for kalusugan, he did relax mask mandates. But 100 days in, booster shots are still inadequate: he said 19 million have taken it, but that’s well below the target of 23.4 million (recall that they conveniently lowered the target from 50% to 30% because of very low demand for the vaccines).
More glaringly, Marcos Jr. still hasn’t appointed a health secretary. What’s taking so long? In a global pandemic, one would expect that position to be filled first.
Marcos Jr. also said he wants to build more specialty hospitals across the country—basically regional versions of the martial law-era Philippine Heart Center, Philippine Lung Center, etc. These were designer hospitals that were the brainchild of Imelda, and in the end were only ever used by the well-to-do.
The regional specialty hospitals is still a wish of Marcos Jr., not an accomplishment per se.
When it comes to the special risk allowance of health workers, Marcos Jr. claimed that he released a P1.04 billion special allotment release. But this doesn’t mean life is any easier for most health workers:
Marcos Jr. was also proud of the return to face-to-face classes in basic education—thanks, he said, to agencies such as the “Department of Interial and Local Government.” But this is only to be expected because the Philippines is the last country on earth to do so.
With the return of 28 million students, Marcos Jr. said this brought “significant economic activity [and] stimulus [especially] retail and informal vendors.” He also cited the program called Libreng Sakay (Free Rides) for students—but that will last only until year-end.
As for livelihood, Marcos Jr. touted his foreign trips meant to attract investments which will create economic activity and jobs domestically. This allegedly brought us $18.9 billion MOUs and letters of intent, that would create “hundreds of thousands of jobs.” But only time will tell how much this will bear fruit in actuality.
There’s special mention of agriculture, since he’s also concurrently the Secretary of Agriculture. He mentioned “fertilizer discount vouchers,” P84.1 million for coffee production and rehabilitation of high value crops, aid for farmers affected by supertyphoon Karding, and the moratorium on the amortization of farmers under the land reform program “para sa [sic] makagaan sa kanilang mga gastusin (to lighten their financial stress).”
But he omitted to mention the agriculture shortages and rising food prices that characterized his first 100 days. How convenient.
As for peace, he said he achieved unity through the term extension of the Bangsamoro Transition Authority and the giving of aid to former rebels. But the extension is due to a law signed by Duterte—and Marcos Jr. merely oversaw that.
Marcos Jr. also mentioned that BARMM is now the “second fastest growing [regional] economy” thanks to the improved peace situation there. True enough, BARMM’s economy is growing fast. But what extent did Marcos Jr. play a role there?
So, a closer look at the president’s vlog shows that he failed to meet targets (e.g., vaccination), or touted as achievements previous wishes and things that would happen anyway regardless of who sat as the next president (easing of mask mandates, reopening of classes, investment promotion, etc.).
Remember what he said during the campaign trail? Turns out that he himself would massively underdeliver when it comes to the economy and the pandemic.
The 100th day of Marcos Jr. in office coincided with the date Leni Robredo announced her candidacy last year (seems like an eternity ago):
Did Robredo actually achieve more in the past 100 days?
PARTIES GALORE
Marcos Jr. also failed to mention in his vlog all the parties and extracurricular activities he attended in his first 100 days:
All those parties, done amid worsening economic conditions. That’s the gist of my latest piece for Rappler:
Most notable and abhorrent among these extracurricular activities was Marcos Jr.’s secret trip to Singapore to watch an F1 race:
More details emerged about that trip.
First, ex-press secretary Trixie Cruz-Angeles (who suddenly resigned this week due to supposed “health reasons”) spoke belatedly about the trip, sugarcoating it and claiming it was “productive”:
Is attending the Singapore Grand Prix necessary to attract investments? Not really. Look at Vietnam:
Marcos Jr. himself justified his trips—which allegedly reaped P1 trillion in investment pledges—by saying those are the “coming out party” of the country. Does he only think and speak in terms of parties?
The president also used the investments spin in this Instagram post:
Second, presidential son (and deputy House majority leader) Sandro was featured on the Singapore Grand Prix website enjoying drinks with friends:
Rep. Aniela Tolentino of Cavite, a friend of Sandro, was also seen watching the F1 race:
Sandro said he was not with his father and went to Singapore with his own set of friends. Who are they kidding?
Third, it was confirmed that Marcos Jr. flew to Singapore using the P2 billion jet procured by the Duterte administration:
Turns out that Marcos Sr. is the most jet-setting president when you look at the first 100 days of presidents past:
Erwin Lacierda, former presidential spokesperson during the time of Noynoy Aquino, shared that the late president PNoy always made sure to bring experts in his trips:
By the way, recall as well that PNoy explicitly refused to take on relatives in government:
Propagandists on social media tried control the damage from the F1 trip by copy-pasting the same message in their posts:
Senator Koko Pimentel, supposedly part of the minority in the Senate, said Marcos Jr. deserved “periodic” breaks. Really? This early? And using taxpayers’ money?
The new executive secretary, Lucas Bersamin, downplayed concerns about the president’s secret trip:
Bersamin elaborated it was “private time” and Marcos Jr. was treated like a “matinee idol” anyway. So what?
Were public funds used for the trip? Of course. But Bersamin beat about the bush:
Rappler’s John Nery lamented Bersamin’s statements excusing the president’s behavior:
The day after returning from Singapore, Marcos Jr. attended the groundbreaking of the Ortigas station of the Metro Manila Subway. The roads around the area will be closed until 2028, or by the end of Marcos Jr.’s term.
The Metro Manila Subway, of course, is a legacy project of the Duterte administration. How can the Marcos Jr. government spend for its own projects?
FAILURE TO CONTROL INFLATION
In his vlog, Marcos Jr. also failed to mention that he failed to control inflation in his first 100 days.
This week it was announced that inflation reached 6.9% in September, the highest in 4 years.
A new Pulse Asia survey showed that 66% or 2 of 3 Filipino adults said “controlling inflation” is the top concern right now. (Traditionally, it’s really one of the top issues in this list, among other economic issues.)
Interestingly, terrorism is down at the very bottom:
More tellingly, among all the issues, it’s only in “controlling inflation” that Marcos Jr. got a negative net approval rating:
Specifically, 42% were dissatisfied with the government’s (non-)response to inflation:
It’s one thing to see the statistics, another to hear their grievances directly:
In an interview with One News, I said inflation might worsen if supply issues are not addressed (food is still the biggest contributor to inflation):
For example, there’s a looming rice shortage, borne by the higher price of inputs such as fertilizers (which have tripled in cost) as well as fewer workers in agriculture:
Ex-VP candidate Kiko Pangilinan shared a photo showing how much food prices are cheaper in Thailand than in the Philippines:
At an event, Marcos Jr. said he wishes “no more Filipino will go hungry.” But that’s an impossible dream if agricultural products’ prices remain unabated:
Memes at artwork about inflation proliferated:
This week also, the exchange rate reached P59/USD for the first time in history:
A Rappler explainer shows why a weaker peso is not necessarily a boon for OFWs and their families:
Things are getting direr for the economy. Former NEDA chief Cielito Habito draws parallels with the Asian financial crisis (although we don’t have a financial crisis now):
By the way, the global economic crisis is being felt already in other parts of ASEAN:
Inflation may worsen worldwide since OPEC+ has decided to cut production to prop up oil prices (which have somewhat declined of late):
In Europe, core inflation (excluding food and energy items) is rising, but also because of lingering supply constraints/disruptions/bottlenecks:
Unsurprisingly, central banks globally are still raising rates…
…but output (and inflation) may not be dampened until after several months. Monetary policy changes have a considerable lag, based on the literature.
The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) claims “the world is headed towards a global recession.”
Oddly, the UN is calling for a suspension or reversal of the rate hikes. But isn’t that counterproductive to the primary goal of fighting inflation?
At any rate, there needs to be global coordination with these rate hikes. Otherwise, a global recession is inevitable:
The Economist says a “new world order is emerging” because of these macroeconomic developments:
In the US, more and more people are concerned of the Fed’s extremely hawkish attitude toward inflation:
The rate hikes are already dampening factory activity…
…and also manifesting in greater stress in financial markets.
Here’s an explainer on the Fed rate hikes and their impact on the US housing market:
There are signs of a looming US recession:
There are proposals to give out economic aid in the US, but this might be counterproductive:
The US rate hikes has made the US dollar extremely strong…
…and this is making life harder for the rest of the world, especially developing countries with huge dollar debts (and facing potential debt crises) and those which import a lot of their commodities.
At least, tourists with US dollars will fare well in Japan, which has opened up to tourists already:
Because of the looming global recession, poverty reduction will markedly slow down this year:
The goal of ending extreme poverty by 2030 will likely not be met:
Back here in the Philippines, more and more businesses are feeling the pinch:
But the labor statistics still look great: although unemployment went up slightly in August…
…that’s because of the parallel rise in the labor force participation rate.
The labor market in the US is tight as well, despite headwinds:
Higher interest rates mean it’s much more difficult to borrow in dollars. But that’s exactly what the Marcos Jr. government did for the first time: on October 6 the Treasury announced that government raised $2 billion through the issuance of government bonds:
As it stands, the national debt is now P13 trillion, and the government may not have any choice but to borrow more to finance its projects. Will that include more junkets and the confidential funds requested by the president and vice president?
By the way, the combined confidential funds requested by Vice President Sara Duterte-Carpio for the Department of Education is P150 million—even larger than the P141.2 million confidential and intelligence funds requested by the National Intelligence Coordination Agency.
At least some senators pushed back. When Senator Risa Hontiveros grilled Duterte-Carpio, the DepEd secretary had a difficult time answering back.
Senator Pia Cayetano also asked, “Does it have to be that much?”
Apparently Sara’s requested confidential funds have the cabinet’s blessing:
Will the DepEd’s confidential funds abate the suffering of schoolchildren (as shown below)?
Speaking of Sara Duterte, she cites the return to face-to-face classes as her major achievement in her own first 100 days:
She also said her first 100 days felt like 100 years:
But why does she have her own 100 days self-assessment as well? Is she president?
JUSTICE FOR PERCY LAPID
On October 4, days before Marcos Jr.’s 100 days in office, veteran and hard-hitting radio broadcaster Percy Lapid was killed inside his car by motorcycle riders on his way home, right outside the gate of his subdivision in Parañaque City.
This was picked up by international media:
The killing was roundly condemned by various individuals and groups:
Notably, Marcos Jr. did not condemn the murder and was merely reportedly “very concerned” by it. He sent his new executive secretary, Lucas Bersamin, to Lapid’s wake:
Rappler CEO and Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Ressa also visited the wake, and had this to say:
The killing goes against the president’s promise of guaranteeing press freedom:
Lapid was unafraid of taking on controversial issues and challenging high-ranking politicians:
Interestingly, Lapid was initially pro-Marcos, but changed and eventually supported ex-VP Robredo’s campaign. He explained before in Filipino:
“Life was supposedly good under Marcos. I said that too. But now I realize, looking back at the time of Marcos—which, it’s a good thing that information is available on the internet as to what Marcos did—one reason why we thought it was good was that we thought that a meager living was enough.”
Supremely ironically, Secretary of Justice Boying Remulla spoke to the UN Human Rights Council saying everything is okay in the Philippines:
FREE LEILA NOW
Shockingly, ex-senator Leila de Lima was held hostage by 3 inmates of the PNP Custodial Center, but is now safe:
Here’s the statement of De Lima on the harrowing “near-death experience”:
Opposition Senator Risa Hontiveros got to visit De Lima:
Some people wondered how that could possibly happen given the strict security in the custodial center:
The president said that he’ll offer a new jail to De Lima. But a lot of people said she deserves to be freed in the first place:
De Lima declined the offer.
SHUFFLE
A shocking pair of resignations happened on October 4, which suggests massive infighting in the Palace—enough to give Game of Thrones a run for its money.
Right before the president’s 100 days, press secretary Trixie Cruz-Angeles shockingly resigned from her post owing to “health reasons”:
She was allegedly embroiled in conflicts with the new executive secretary Lucas Bersamin:
Meanwhile, Jose Calida also withdrew from his post of Commission on Audit head:
The new executive secretary Lucas Bersamin announced as well that his predecessor Vic Rodriguez is no longer part of the cabinet, and won’t even be Marcos Jr.’s chief of staff:
Where’s the unity?
By the way, this week lawyers took action against serial red-tagger Lorraine Badoy:
MISCELLANY
An SWS survey showed that by the end of the previous admin, Duterte got +81 net satisfaction rating, while ex-VP Leni Robredo just got +7. What?
Nearly a ton of shabu worth P6.7 billion was discovered in a drug den where the ID of an anti-drug cop was found (specifically, he’s an intelligence officer of the Philippine National Police’s Drug Enforcement Group). Just goes to show how much of a sham Duterte’s drug war was.
International tensions heighten. North Korea launched a missile that flew above Japan, prompting the Japanese gov’t to warn its citizens:
The only bridge linking mainland Russia to Crimea was blown away in a massive explosion:
In one of its tweets, Ukrainian defense ministry used a quote from national hero Jose Rizal:
More bad news on the climate change front:
In the wake of supertyphoon Karding, the Philippines turns out to be the most disaster-prone country:
The newest medicine Nobel laurate was thrown off a pond at the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology in Leipzig to celebrate his win:
GRAPHS OF NOTE
An infographic showing that traffic along EDSA—Metro Manila’s main thoroughfare—has now exceeded pre-pandemic levels:
The declining share of labor income in GDP across countries:
China’s debt-to-GDP ratio continues to balloon:
Does the Phillips curve still exist? Apparently, yes:
When being a Republican kills:
News consumption by social media platform in the US:
Spending by generation in the US:
RECOMMENDATIONS
Recommended book: The Marcos Era: A Reader (Ateneo Press). I contributed a chapter on the Marcos golden age myths. The online book launch will be on Wednesday, October 12, 5 PM.
Recommended dashboard: PH Economy Dashboard, curated by the Usapang Econ Team. A one-stop shop for the Philippines’ key economic statistics, summarized in nice, interactive graphs. Free to use, and will be updated regularly.
Recommended podcast: “‘MaJoHa’, senyales ba ng learning crisis?” by Usapang Econ x Pumapodcast.
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