Surprisingly high growth amid rising inflation | #NeverForget Diary
Surprisingly high growth amid rising inflation | #NeverForget Diary
Week 20: November 7-13, 2022
This is the #NeverForget Diary, a weekly summary of what’s happening in the Philippines under Marcos II. In a time of mangled histories and fragile memories, it’s crucial never to forget. (Note: this post may be clipped in your email inbox. Screenshot above from ABS-CBN.)
Rather surprisingly, the economy grew by 7.6% in the 3rd quarter of 2022. Impressive because it beat the 6.1% median forecast of analysts, and also because it happened amid a nearly 14-year-high inflation rate.
Hours before the official announcement by the PSA and NEDA, the president took it upon himself to share the new GDP figures at Cambodia. These statistics are usually closely guarded and protected by an embargo. So an advanced announcement by the president is highly unusual.
Part of the better-than-expected GDP growth figure is revenge spending. Indeed, a large part of growth came from spending on hotels and restaurants.
Revenge spending on tourism is also on the rise.
Speaking of travel, the president was visibly excited by his trip to Cambodia—an energy otherwise seldom seen from him. Travel is life, I guess?
At Cambodia, Marcos boasted that he got the most number of votes in PH history. This is false.
Economist Winnie Monsod had this to say of the latest GDP figures:
My full take on the latest GDP figures:
INFLATION
The masses continue to feel the pinch of high inflation:
Even the middle class is reeling from it:
Mangoes are so expensive (P299/kg), and by contrast they sell so cheaply in Bali, Indonesia where I recently got to visit (Indian mangoes are at P81/kg):
Even red onions are so expensive these days:
Inflation memes continue to crop up:
To combat the effects of inflation, gov’t is said to be preparing to give P206.5 billion in ayuda or aid. But (1) the enumerated budget items are really part of the 2023 budget; and (2) untargeted ayuda of this scale may only prove inflationary—stoking the fire even more.
More from budget expert Zy Suzara:
The president continues his toxic positivity regarding the economy. Aren’t we facing any headwinds?
Meanwhile, Senator Cynthia Villar spews the modern version of “Let them eat cake!”
There are so many agri experts these days:
Meanwhile, Imee Marcos continues to give out Nutribun as a way to supposedly combat hunger and food insecurity—leaning in on her father’s old program coopted from USAID:
Speaking of Imee, she celebrated her birthday in Davao. Quite telling.
Globally, inflation is still up partly because of supply chain disruptions. For instance:
Financial conditions have also tightened so much in the Global North, what with the rise of interest rates:
At least natural gas prices in the EU are going down:
In the US, the strong dollar is no assurance that inflation will abate (by way of cheaper imports):
More on the factors behind the strong dollar:
Inflation tends to affect the poor the most, even in the eurozone.
BUDGET APPROVALS
The Senate recently approved the budgets for the Office of the President, including P4.5 billion of confidential and intelligence funds.
This tweet reminds us of how the Marcos dictatorship used intelligence funds to bankroll Imelda’s New York shopping sprees:
Some senators posted this photo. They’re new to working hard, apparently.
DIGGING A DITCH
A mysterious giant hole was discovered to have been dug by a backhoe near the New Bilibid Prison.
It was apparently built at the behest of suspended Bureau of Corrections chief Gerald Bantag, who ordered the building a swimming pool because he’s a “master scuba diver.” What the f*ck?
MISCELLANY
About a third of today’s youth grew up without both parents. An alarming trend:
For the first time ever, the PH has also dropped below the replacement level of fertility.
A cartoonist/school teacher was killed in Sultan Kudarat on November 5.
Attracting investors in the PH is harder than ever.
The program called Libreng Sakay (Free Rides) is ending soon. Could the Marcos Jr. administration do nothing to extend it?
Right after Typhoon Paeng struck, Marcos Jr. handed out aid to typhoon victims as if there were a graduation.
A comment about the president’s laziness:
Ex-police general Camilo Cascolan took his oath as health undersecretary. What expertise is he bringing to the table?
Speaking of health, some medical groups are pushing to protect schoolchildren by urging the Department of Education to continue mask mandates in schools:
Rep. Benny Abante filed a bill protecting the rights of heterosexuals. Crazy.
Senator Bato dela Rosa wants to ban “subversive books.” Not this again.
GRAPHS OF NOTE
A reminder of the PH’s dire education crisis:
Employment ratios in the US vs Nordic countries. Spot the difference.
RECOMMENDATIONS
Recommended book: Pro-poor Development Policies: Lessons from the Philippines and East Asia. Published by ISEAS. I contributed 2 chapters, one on microfinance in the Philippines and another on Philippine economic history during American colonial rule.
Recommended podcast: New Usapang Econ podcast episode about social protection.
Recommended documentary: “Social media and political polarization in America” by 60 Minutes.
Related:
Recommended series: Zootopia+. ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ Cute, fast-paced stories.
Recommended series: Andor. ⭐️⭐️⭐️ Slow burn, but good end. Worth watching if only for Stellan Skarsgård.
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