What will Marcos Jr. say in his first SONA? | #NeverForget Diary
Week 4: July 18-24, 2022
This is the #NeverForget Diary, a weekly summary of what’s happening in the Philippines under Marcos II. In a time of mangled histories and fragile memories, it’s crucial never to forget. (Note: the version of this post that you get in your email inbox may be clipped. Photo above from Bayan via ABS-CBN News.)
Preparations are well underway for President Bongbong Marcos Jr.’s first State of the Nation Address (SONA) on Monday next week, July 25.
His camp wants it to be “simple,” but reportedly a whopping 21,000 troops will be deployed on SONA day—much more than the troops deployed during any of the SONAs of ex-presidents Benigno Aquino III or Rodrigo Duterte. This graph from Rappler illustrates it:
Some people interpret the humongous troops as a sign of insecurity:
Government has also set up huge billboards all over Metro Manila to announce the upcoming SONA. How much did these all cost?
In a highly irregular move, the government also prohibited progressive groups from holding their traditional SONA protests along Commonwealth Avenue, leading up to Batasang Pambansa where the SONA is to be held. The reasons for this policy turned out to be quite flimsy, including obstruction of traffic:
But after talks with the local government of Quezon City, a compromise was reached: progressive groups will be allowed to hold their traditional protests on the eastbound side of Commonwealth, while pro-Marcos groups can stay on the other side of the wide road.
At any rate, protesters are already preparing their effigies:
What to expect from the SONA?
According to Marcos Jr.’s executive secretary Vic Rodriguez (who was rumored on social media to resign this week—but apparently that was a false alarm), the president is supposedly “very busy” since he’s “writing his own SONA message.” Really, no speechwriters?
Nobody knows exactly what Marcos Jr.’s speech might contain. The parody account Malacañang Events and Catering Services hazarded guesses and has already prepared a drinking game and a bingo card for Monday.
Seriously, many expect the president to finally lay down his concrete and comprehensive plan for the economy and country—something which he hasn’t done up to this point. Many groups are quite anxious to hear the belated plan:
Here are some issues that will likely crop up:
First, inflation is top of mind among Filipinos now according to a Pulse Asia survey, so it will almost certainly be mentioned. At 6.1% in June, inflation reached its highest level since 2018.
We’re also seeing manifestations of “shrinkflation”: goods shrinking as a way for businesses to avoid raising their prices:
Global factors are largely responsible for higher inflation, but recent indicators suggest inflation might be abating sometime soon. Crossing fingers!
To wit, Oxford’s measure of supply chain problems in the US has been falling in the past 3 months:
Russia and Ukraine have agreed to ease the flow of grains from Ukraine’s ports:
And The Economist reports that:
Inflation in Asia may already have peaked, reckon analysts at Morgan Stanley, an investment bank, given that global commodity prices have begun to fall, as has demand for goods.
Already, we’re seeing oil price rollbacks in the past couple of weeks for diesel, kerosene, and gasoline. Another rollback is expected next week:
Agriculture issues will likely crop up in the SONA, too, insofar as the president himself is serving as interim agriculture secretary. This week he visited again the Department of Agriculture (DA) for another meeting, but staff were no longer allowed to congregate near him. (Remember that Marcos Jr. has just recovered from COVID.)
He wore a watch that some people think might be a Jaeger-LeCoultre Master Ultra Thin:
Marcos Jr. wants to revive his father’s agricultural credit program called “Masagana 99” and transform it into “Masagana 150.” The difference? Said DA spokesperson and undersecretary for consumer and political affairs Kristine Evangelista:
The Masagana 150 is about increasing the yield. We are pushing that for, every hectare, there will be 150 cavans produced. So that is in the part of the marching order of how to increase the yield of our farmers.
His father’s Masagana 99 program was an utter failure. Remember this 2020 exchange between Senator Imee Marcos and ex-finance secretary Carlos Dominguez III?
Will Marcos Jr. be able to transform Masagana 99 into something sustainable?
What about Marcos Jr.’s promise of bringing down the price of rice to P20/kg? Unfortunately, the farmgate price of palay is rising:
To arrest food prices, some sectors are clamoring for the repeal of the Rice Tariffication Act (enacted on Valentine’s Day in 2019). But expect Marcos Jr.’s economic team to resist: such repeal might do more harm than good and make it even harder to temper rice prices.
Speaking of agriculture, I inadvertently started an online debate when I posted last week on Twitter that the Philippines is in fact not an agricultural country, based on data. A number of people became defensive—even emotional—over this. I presented the supporting facts and countered the rebuttals in my Rappler piece this week:
Health issues are also expected to arise in the SONA. Lamentably, apart from COVID, dengue plagues the country now. An outbreak was declared in Occidental Mindoro; Antique is under a state of calamity. One wonders: would the situation be this bad if the Duterte government had not peddled lies about the dengue vaccine called Dengvaxia years back?
By the way, this week the Department of Health conducted its first face-to-face press briefing since the pandemic started. What took them so long?
By the way, on July 23 the World Health Organization declared monkeypox a “public health emergency of international concern”—the second such declaration after COVID-19 in 2020.
Education issues might also be brought up by the president. Interestingly, there was confusion this week regarding the government’s return-to-school policy. VP and education secretary Sara Duterte issued a bold order mandating all schools to shift to face-to-face classes by November 2.
But later, the president revised this broad and sweeping policy by saying that, after all, blended learning will be allowed in some areas. Do they have a Viber group?
Infrastructure issues may also be mentioned in the SONA, and Marcos Jr. might likely say he’ll continue Duterte’s Build, Build, Build. But this arresting image shared by landscape architect and urbanist Paulo Alcazaren forces us to think: for whom is Build, Build, Build, really?
Will the drug war be mentioned as well? This is doubtful. But photographer Raffy Lerma reminds us this week of the brutality of it all:
Speaking of the “legacy” of the Duterte administration, his billionaire friend and crony Dennis Uy—who acquired companies left and right in the past 6 years—is now facing financial trouble:
Udenna Corporation responded by saying “there has been, in fact, no Event of Default or, at the very least, no irremediable Event of Default…”
Here’s a summary of how indebted Dennis Uy is:
Updates:
In other news, the president led his 3rd official cabinet meeting on July 19. He fumbled again at the start, and awkwardly tried to break the ice by asking VP Duterte what’s the best way to address her:
Later, Marcos Jr. seemed unsure (again) of who the prayer leader will be.
Notably, Marcos Jr.’s last press briefing—where he actually entertained questions from journalists—was on July 5. It’s now July 23. Why the reluctance to face media again? Is it because of his lacking performance in the first?
Raf Ignacio, a former close-in aide of ex-president Benigno Aquino III, mused that there’s no reason for Marcos Jr. not to perform well in press briefings:
A horrific shooting incident shook the nation Sunday, July 25, when medical doctor and social media personality Chao-Tiao Yumol killed at the Ateneo de Manila University campus 3 people: ex-Lamitan, Basilan mayor Rose Furigay, Furigay’s longtime aide Victor Capistrano, and Ateneo security guard Jeneven Bandiala. Others were wounded.
The shooting happened right before the commencement exercises of Ateneo Law School.
The suspect, Yumol, is a social media personality of sorts (verified on Facebook) and is known to post pro-Duterte, pro-Marcos, and anti-Robredo content online.
Apparently Yumol, who hails from Lamitan, Basilan himself, previously accused Furigay of corruption and had animus against ex-mayor. As Rappler reported:
…Furigay filed 76 counts of cyber libel against Yumol, which temporarily prevented the suspect from practicing medicine, according to the police. The suspect was detained for his libel cases, but was able to post bail, Medina added.
The execution of the crime is quite scary:
Based on the suspect’s account, he rented a transport network vehicle service and went inside the university – he was able to carry his gun despite the gun ban in Metro Manila for Marcos Jr.’s SONA… He blended with the crowd and waited for the family inside the campus. When Yumol spotted the former mayor, he immediately shot Furigay.
Still, Yumol was somehow allowed by the police to issue an on-cam statement. Why?
President Marcos Jr. issued a statement about the shooting, but other leaders like VP Sara Duterte and Quezon City Mayor Joy Belmonte issued much stronger, clearer condemnations:
Nobel Peace Prize laureate and Rappler CEO Maria Ressa implied that the shooting incident is but the latest real-world manifestation of online violence and impunity:
Cartoonist @KevinKalbo captured this sentiment well:
My take on the shooting incident, which happened a day before Marcos Jr.’s first SONA:
THIS WEEK IN “COA FLAGGED…”
The Commission on Audit (COA) flagged the Department of Social Welfare and Development for failing to distribute to the poor pandemic relief amounting to P1.9 billion.
This week, we learned that more than a million 4Ps beneficiary families will be taken off the program, freeing up about P15 billion in funds and making room for new beneficiaries. But aside from conditional cash transfers, we need to beef up as well (and improve the targeting of) unconditional cash transfers.
COA flagged the Department of Transportation for several setbacks in projects worth P1.61 trillion.
COA flagged the Department of Information and Communications Technology for poor implementation of the Free Wi-Fi for All Program worth P12 billion.
COA flagged about P480 million worth of police equipment undelivered since 2016.
After receiving the highest possible audit ratings from COA for 4 straight years, the Office of the Vice President’s hiring of a private lawyer as consultant was flagged by COA.
Here’s the clarification of Atty. Barry Gutierrez, longtime spokesperson of ex-VP Leni Robredo:
HISTORICAL DISTORTIONS ROUNDUP
Renowned historian Ambeth Ocampo will be more active on social media in his newfound quest to fight disinformation. According to a piece by ABS-CBN News:
The author said he’s planning to be more active on YouTube and is also considering having a presence on TikTok. Furthermore, he called on his fellow academics to make their presence felt on social media, “join in this battle, invade the platform and reclaim it for truth and our discipline.”
Meanwhile, actress Ella Cruz—who became infamous for saying “History is like tsismis [gossip]”—bawled in a new interview with talk show host Boy Abunda. Some see crocodile tears, a stunt that’s merely part of the PR for an upcoming revisionist biopic about the Marcoses, titled “Maid in Malacañang.”
Someone made this imaginary inuman session feat. Ella Cruz and other personalities:
Director Joel Lamangan will reportedly make a movie to push back against “Maid in Malacañang.”
DATA & GRAPHS OF NOTE
In Gallup’s latest Global Emotions Report, the Philippines turned out to be the most stressed in Southeast Asia, and the second most angry and sad in the region.
But when you look at the actual report, we actually ranked as one of the countries with the highest positive experiences worldwide:
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas published this week useful information about the details of Philippine debt (hint: it’s a lot different now from Marcosian debt in the late 1970s and early 1980s).
The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) also released new data on the Philippine economy’s prospects.
They pointed out that in the Philippines the budget deficit is widening and debt is ballooning. (This week, Moody’s Analytics also reported that the Philippines and Thailand saw the biggest jumps of the debt-to-GDP ratio in ASEAN from end-2019 to end-2021.) But at least, AMRO says, the Philippine government is starting to talk about fiscal consolidation.
Former BSP deputy governor Diwa Guinigundo advised in his latest column:
Trimming the deficit from 7.6% in 2022 to only 3% by 2028 can only be done by increasing the revenues and real GDP. But the government, in adhering to an ambitious growth target, should also keep public spending very much engaged, rather than reduced as programmed…
Record heat scorched Europe, as shown by this graphic:
Which vaccine saved the most lives last year?
RECOMMENDATIONS
Recommended explainer: “The looming food catastrophe” by The Economist (on YouTube).
Recommended meme: A nice way of understanding the distinction between million, billion, and trillion (useful when reading huge numbers in the news, pertaining to debt, GDP, etc.).
Recommended series: “Ms. Marvel.” ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ Plus points for Muslim and South Asian representation. I also love how it delves into the history of the Partition of India, and how seamlessly that folds into the plot.
